News & Views
Escalating Red Sea disruptions are driving a sharp decline in Saudi oil loadings, forcing alternative export routes and raising concerns about fuel shortages. Falling tanker activity, refinery outages and tightening product markets are increasing volatility across global energy and shipping sectors.
Global Economy
OECD expects global growth to withstand higher energy costs as booming trade and AI infrastructure investment sustain industrial activity and freight demand. Nevertheless, inflation, elevated bunker costs and ongoing disruption across Middle Eastern shipping routes pose continued risks.
Shipping Markets
Fujairah bunker market shows tentative stabilisation as inventories rebuild and LSFO sales strengthen modestly, yet overall volumes remain sharply below last year. Recovery from earlier disruption continues slowly, with year-to-date sales highlighting persistent weakness across fuel grades.
Port Insights
Moderate demand, with falling product availability in tandem with increasing lead times.
Oil Prices
Crude sells off amid strong noise about volumes moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, while loadings in the Red Sea have tumbled. Backwardation remains strong, also in the gasoil and fuel oil curves.
Port Flows
Middle distillate stocks remain under pressure across Fujairah and Rotterdam despite a build in Singapore, while fuel oil inventories show mixed trends. Strong exports from Fujairah and persistent net outflows from ARA continue to tighten regional supply balances and sentiment.
Observations
Geopolitics, falling inventories and diesel shortages strengthen the call on OPEC+ as oil markets remain tight and supply disruptions delay rebalancing until 2027.
News & Views
Escalating Red Sea disruptions are driving a sharp decline in Saudi oil loadings, forcing alternative export routes and raising concerns about fuel shortages. Falling tanker activity, refinery outages and tightening product markets are increasing volatility across global energy and shipping sectors.
Saudi Arabia shifts crude exports back to the Gulf as Red Sea loadings collapse amid escalating Houthi tensions. Refinery disruptions, weaker tanker traffic and tightening diesel supplies are fuelling market volatility, exposing growing vulnerabilities across global oil and refined product trade flows.
The intensification of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is taking a strong toll on the Red Sea loadings. Those were already a diversion from the Strait of Hormuz.
The Red Sea loadings dropped to just over 8 mln tonnes in August and to 3.7 mln tonnes through September 22nd. While the month is not over yet, September is set to be the lowest in the 21 months covered in our data. The number of vessels dropped to 19, less than half of what is recorded “normally” and only 20% of what has been seen since the diversions started in March. All vessel types are impacted, with VLCCs falling back to the earlier average of around 12-15 per month, compared with 55-60 in previous months.
Export volumes of crude and dirty product are down to around 1-1.2 mb/d, around what was normal before, but down 3-4 mb/d from the peak of diversion. Analysts assume/expect a two-week pipeline outage, but that remains just that: an assumption. The Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast is reportedly offline until the end of October. Circumstantial evidence suggests a sharp drop in refinery output, as a ship has been chartered to lift gasoline in the ARA region for discharge in Yanbu.
Clearly, to sustain at least a reasonable level of exports, Saudi is returning to Ras Tanura for loadings and shuttling to Fujairah for STS operations.
Gasoil cracks show the product shortage is intensifying. In addition to the Russian diesel export ban, several US senators are now urging the implementation of an export ban for the US as well. The proposal appears to have been dismissed by the Secretary of the Interior. However, with a market that is extremely stretched, all sorts of interventions may be considered and actually implemented. The French president reportedly suggested further releases from the strategic stocks to help alleviate the markets. The result is more volatility and more guessing about what is really happening in volumes being produced, exported, imported, and drawn from storage.
Tanker rates make it clear that oil is a central product of the economy, however much the world wants to walk away from it.
Red Sea loading by departure date, Crude DPP and Fuel, as of 22/09/26, tonnes
Red Sea loading vessels by vessel type, Crude DPP and Fuel, as of 22/09/26
Port Insights
Oil Prices
Crude sells off amid strong noise about volumes moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, while loadings in the Red Sea have tumbled. Backwardation remains strong, also in the gasoil and fuel oil curves.
Oil prices
The so-called scrubber spread, or HI-5, represented here by the reported delivered prices of 0.5% and 3.5% decreased in Rotterdam and Houston, and increased in Singapore. In Singapore, the 0.5% was down $56 between September 15 and September 22, while the 3.5% was down $62. The spread is up $6/mt at $146/mt. In Rotterdam, the 0.5% fell $60, and the 3.5% fell $45. The spread is down $15 to $89/mt. The 0.5% fell $60 in Houston, while the 3.5% fell $11. The spread is down $49 at $221/mt.
It appears that the noise in the oil market is now so substantial, that the Brent price just goes down when pumping stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline have been hit, taking away several million barrels per day of loadings, resulting in cargoes not going to destinations. Loadings in the Persian Gulf are increasing, with tankers shuttling to the Gulf of Oman side for STS operations. The assessed quantities transiting the Strait of Hormuz vary widely. The result is that the price just bounces strongly on whatever is said. Since last week’s report on Wednesday, the front month has come off its peak of that day to below $100 on Tuesday. The futures curve remains in steep backwardation. Dated Brent spiked above $130 last week, and receded to over $115 on Tuesday.
Oil prices Brent, Gasoil and HSFO
Estimated LNG Bunker Price, NW Europe
Biodiesel and ICE Gasoil prices
Carbon price, EUA
VLSFO-HSFO (Hi-5) S’pore, R’dam, Houston, weekly average
Rotterdam Hi-5 spread (barges, $/mt, weekly average)
Gasoil and fuel curves
The ICE Gasoil’s six-month time spread fell by around $78 from Tuesday last week to $256.8 by Tuesday, September 22. Also, the front-month price stood at $1437 by the end of Tuesday, down $131 from a week ago. The front-month spread retraced from $90 September last week to nearly $55.8 by September 22. The contract remains backwardated along the curve. At the same time, the ULSD premium in Northwest Europe weakened to minus $1 relative to the front-month gasoil, suggesting some prompt weakness.
LGO Curves last three weeks
LGO Time spreads last three weeks
LGO front month time spread last two months
The Rotterdam 3.5% barges fuel oil curve 6-month spread trended down from $66 Tuesday last week to $57 by September 22 (month 1 minus month 6). The front-to-second month fell from around $17 last Tuesday towards $13.6 by the end of Tuesday.
Rotterdam 3.5% FO Curves last three weeks
Rotterdam 3.5% FO Time spreads last three weeks
Rotterdam 3.5% FO front month time spread last two months
Global Economy
OECD expects global growth to withstand higher energy costs as booming trade and AI infrastructure investment sustain industrial activity and freight demand. Nevertheless, inflation, elevated bunker costs and ongoing disruption across Middle Eastern shipping routes pose continued risks.
This week’s calendar
Global data shows business activity surveys, industrial production and a key interest rate decision, providing fresh signals on manufacturing momentum and freight-intensive economic sectors. These indicators are particularly relevant for assessing future oil consumption, refinery utilisation and shipping demand.
United States
The United States calendar includes S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods Orders and JOLTS Job Openings. Manufacturing activity remains in expansion territory despite a modest expected slowdown, while weaker durable goods orders could indicate softer demand for manufactured products and industrial transport services. Together, these releases will be watched for indications of future freight movements and distillate fuel demand.
Europe
Europe’s focus is on PMI surveys and Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index. Euro Area composite activity is expected to remain in expansion territory, while Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to show resilience. The Ifo survey is forecast to improve slightly, suggesting stable industrial conditions in one of the world’s most important exporting economies. Stronger industrial sentiment would support regional freight activity and refined product consumption.
Asia
India provides some of the week’s most important demand signals. Composite and manufacturing PMIs remain firmly expansionary, while industrial and manufacturing production are expected to maintain robust growth. These indicators point to continued strength in industrial fuel demand and domestic freight activity. The RBA interest rate decision is expected to leave rates unchanged, indicating stable monetary conditions in the wider Asia-Pacific region.
Overall Assessment
The week’s data suggest that global manufacturing activity remains broadly positive, led by India and supported by Europe and the United States. Industrial production indicators are generally constructive, implying continued support for oil demand, refinery throughput, shipping volumes and bunker fuel consumption through the near term.
| Date | Place | Topic | Expect | Change |
| 23/09 | Germany | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 54 | 54.3 |
| India | HSBC Composite PMI Flash | 54.5 | 54.3 | |
| India | HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.2 | 52.8 | |
| Euro Area | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52 | |
| Euro Area | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.7 | 52.7 | |
| United States | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53 | 53.9 | |
| 24/09 | Germany | Ifo Business Climate | 89 | 88.8 |
| 25/09 | United States | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -0.40% | 1.10% |
| 28/09 | India | Industrial Production YoY | 6.70% | |
| India | Manufacturing Production YoY | 7.30% | ||
| 29/09 | Australia | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| United States | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.2M | 7.271M |
OECD sees resilient global growth as energy shock lifts inflation, while trade and AI investment continue supporting shipping demand.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published its September update to its World Economic Situation and Prospects.
The global economy has shown greater resilience than expected in 2026, despite a significant energy shock stemming from disruption in the Middle East. Global growth is now projected at 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, slightly above earlier forecasts but still below the pre-pandemic average. Higher energy costs have interrupted the disinflation trend and increased uncertainty, but strong trade activity and sustained investment in technology-related industries have helped prevent a more severe slowdown.
Inflation
Inflation has moved higher again after declining steadily since 2024, largely reflecting the sharp rise in energy prices. Brent crude oil has climbed to around $100 per barrel, roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels, while diesel and jet fuel prices have risen even more sharply. The impact has been most visible in transport and food prices, with higher energy costs feeding through supply chains. However, unlike the inflation surge seen in 2021-2022, broader pass-through into the wider economy has so far remained limited because of softer global demand.
International trade
Global trade has remained a bright spot in 2026. Merchandise trade expanded by 5.4% year-on-year during the first five months of the year, outperforming both 2025 growth rates and earlier expectations. Much of this expansion has been driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, supporting trade in semiconductors, information and communications technology equipment, electrical machinery and related components.
East Asia has emerged as a key beneficiary of this trend, with several economies recording particularly strong export performance, supported by their deep integration into global technology supply chains. At the same time, services trade has continued to grow, led by digitally deliverable services, although international tourism has lost momentum amid elevated fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
Energy and industrial policy
The energy shock has exposed continuing vulnerabilities in global supply chains, particularly following disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and increased risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Nevertheless, according to the OECD, the world economy is less energy-intensive than in previous decades, helping to limit the broader economic impact. Increased energy production in the Americas and higher LNG exports from the United States have also partly offset supply losses from the Middle East.
Meanwhile, accelerated investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and digital technologies has supported industrial activity. Governments are increasingly balancing energy security objectives with industrial competitiveness, particularly in technology-intensive sectors. This has reinforced investment in manufacturing capacity, data infrastructure and advanced technologies, helping sustain industrial production despite a more challenging external environment.
Implications for shipping
For shipping markets, the outlook remains mixed. Strong merchandise trade growth, particularly in technology-related goods, continues to support freight demand. However, higher fuel costs, ongoing disruption around key Middle Eastern maritime routes and elevated geopolitical risks are increasing operating costs and creating uncertainty for global supply chains. As a result, shipping activity is likely to remain supported by trade volumes but face continued pressure from higher energy prices and route disruption risks.
OECD Growth Outlook
Change to forecast from mid 2026 Outlook
Shipping Markets
Fujairah bunker market shows tentative stabilisation as inventories rebuild and LSFO sales strengthen modestly, yet overall volumes remain sharply below last year. Recovery from earlier disruption continues slowly, with year-to-date sales highlighting persistent weakness across fuel grades.
Trade and port calls
Global trade indicators continue to point towards improving activity in September 2026, although the picture remains mixed. The UNCTAD Nowcast suggests merchandise trade volumes will strengthen further into the third quarter. At the same time, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) indicates supply-chain pressures remain elevated compared with normal conditions, despite easing from last year’s levels.
The latest UNCTAD merchandise trade volume nowcast for Q3 2026 increased to 1.67% as of 15 September, up from 1.39% at the beginning of the month and slightly above the 1.67% estimate reported a week earlier. The steady upward revisions suggest that global merchandise trade volumes continue to recover through the third quarter, supported by resilient industrial activity and manufacturing demand. The latest estimate also remains above the 1.26% reading reported for Q3 2025, implying stronger trade volume growth than a year ago.
The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose further in the latest available data for August 2026. The index rose to 1.06 from 0.94 in July, a 13.5% month-on-month increase. Supply-chain pressures therefore continue to tighten, extending the upward trend that began earlier this year. However, compared with August 2025, the index is still 13.4% lower, indicating that current pressures remain substantially below the levels seen a year ago despite the recent deterioration.
UNCTAD trade nowcast quarterly growth, Q1 – Q3 2026 by estimation date
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 1998-2026
Global port calls are continuing along the upper end of the five-year range. Last week’s port calls (week 38) were 2% higher than the previous week, and 1% higher than the same week in 2026. Total calls are close to 13,070. Deep-sea cargo vessel calls were 1% higher than last week. Compared to last year, calls are 5% lower. Port calls by deep-sea cargo vessels in China were 4% lower year-on-year, and 5% higher week-on-week.
Global Port Calls – Total, 7 day average
China Port Calls – Deep Sea Cargo Vessels, 7 day average
Port congestion
The latest port congestion data, as of September 17 (the most recent available), is lower by 0.4% from the previous report. The fleet’s share of deadweight tonnage (dwt) capacity in port was 29.3%, unchanged from the previous week. Chinese port congestion for deep-sea vessels was down 1.8% from the same period, reaching 123 mln dwt. LNG congestion in Northwest Europe was up 15% from last week, with volumes at 2.3 mln cbm by the week’s end. Current levels are above the period average.
Port Congestion Index – Deep Sea Cargo Vessels In Port, m dwt, 7dma
Port Congestion Index – LNG Vessels In North Sea Ports, mln m3, 7dma
Earnings
Clarksons’ general earnings index, expressed in USD/day, increased by 14.2% to $64,600 for the week ending September 18. The index is a composite of all the leading shipping segments. The level is 112% above the 5-year average. Without container sector earnings, the index is $66,300, up $9,900 from the previous week. The current level is 167% above the average. The Baltic Dirty and Clean Indexes increased, while the Baltic Dry Index decreased. The main container index fell.
Clarksea earnings index
Clarksea index last 6 years
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by less than 4% during the week ending on September 18, reaching 3,370 points. The index is currently 45% above the 5-year average.
The Dirty Product/Crude Oil Tanker Index increased by more than 22%. The current level of 4,899 is 397% above the period average.
The Clean Tanker Index increased by less than 7% during the week. The clean index level of 1,943 is 152% above the seasonal average.
Container freight levels, as measured by Freightos, fell 2.6% last week to $3,407. The current level is 26% below the five-year average, yet above the lows recorded for the same period.
The China-to-US West Coast index was up 4.3%, while the China-to-Northwest Europe index was down 15.2%.
Baltic Clean Tanker Index
Freightos container index
Idle fleet and floating storage
Currently, 5% of the deep-sea fleet is idle, up 0.1% points from last week. This is 26% above the average levels of the 5-year trading band (covering 2021-25). Some 770 vessels were idle, accounting for around 90 mln dwt. Last week, 768 vessels were idle, accounting for 88 mln dwt. Idle tanker capacity stands at 8.2%, comprising 379 vessels, up 1 from last week. Idle bulker capacity is 3.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last week. The 220 vessels reported idle are up 2 from last week. The idle dry bulk fleet is some 21% below average in deadweight capacity (i.e., higher utilisation levels). Tankers are 69% above the 5-year average.
Deep sea vessels idle capacity % Fleet
Tankers idle capacity % Fleet
Floating storage for tankers rose by 6 vessels to 111 last week, up from the prior week. The latest figures show a 3.3 mb rise in crude oil storage, with 56 vessels, up 3 and a total capacity of around 84 mln barrels. In the product segment, 55 vessels are currently employed for storage, up 3 from last week, with a storage capacity of approximately 19.6 mln barrels. Levels are 6% above the 5-year average of around 98 mln barrels.
Vessel speeds
Weekly data indicate that the speed of large container vessels increased by 0.1 knots from last week, to 15.8 knots. The average speed of medium-sized container ships increased by 0.1 knots from 14.7 to some 14.8 knots. Bulkers (Panamax) show unchanged speeds at an average of 11.1 knots. VLCC speeds were unchanged at 12.5 knots. LNG tankers reportedly maintained speeds at knots.
VLCC vessel speed
Container vessel speed
Bunker sales
Fujairah’s bunker market remained under pressure in August 2026, with sales continuing to recover only gradually from the severe disruption seen earlier this year. Total bunker sales reached 210 kt in August, down 2.8% from 216 kt in July and 65.4% below the 607 kt recorded in August 2025.
LSFO remained the dominant fuel grade. Sales increased 2.8% month on month to 139 kt, but were still 64.8% lower than the 394 kt delivered in August last year. HSFO sales fell 17.0% from July to 56 kt, leaving volumes 69.1% below August 2025 levels. LSMGO was the only major grade to show monthly growth, rising 11.4% to 15 kt, although volumes remained 52.1% lower year on year.
The year-to-date picture remains considerably weaker than last year. Total bunker sales during January-August 2026 reached 1.97 mln tonnes, down 57.4% from 4.63 mln tonnes during the same period of 2025. LSFO volumes declined 60.1% year on year to 1.21 mln tonnes, while HSFO sales fell 52.6% to 640 kt. LSMGO deliveries dropped 50.8% to 119 kt.
Market conditions nevertheless showed some stabilisation compared with the extreme weakness seen during the second quarter. Weekly inventory data indicate that Fujairah fuel oil stocks have begun to recover from exceptionally low levels reached during the Strait of Hormuz disruption. At the same time, middle distillate inventories have also improved, although both remain below historical norms.
Fujairah bunker sales
Fujairah bunker sales comparison August 2026
Port Flows
Middle distillate stocks remain under pressure across Fujairah and Rotterdam despite a build in Singapore, while fuel oil inventories show mixed trends. Strong exports from Fujairah and persistent net outflows from ARA continue to tighten regional supply balances and sentiment.
Stock levels
This week, Singapore’s middle distillate stock levels increased by 5% from last week. At 8.7 mb, the level is about 10% below the 5-year average (2021 to 2025). Residual fuel stocks decreased by 2%, or 0.3 mb, to 20.1 mb. Fuel oil stocks are 6% below the 5-year average.
Fujairah middle distillate stocks fell by 7.7% to 2.1 mb. The level is 20% below the 5-year average. Stocks of heavy distillates decreased by 50%. The level is at 2.8 mb. Current heavy distillate stocks are 69% below the previous 5-year low.
In Rotterdam, gasoil stocks fell 1.4% over the past week to 1.7 mln tonnes. The level is 20% below the average recorded over the previous five years. Fuel oil stocks decreased to 0.9 mln tonnes. This is 23% below the average for the current week.
In week 37, US fuel oil stocks rose by around 4% (1 mb) to 23 mb. East Coast stocks decreased by nearly 1.3%, to around 4.9 mb, while Gulf Coast stocks rose by some 8%, to 13.6 mb. Overall, East Coast stocks are above their lows, while Gulf Coast stocks are above their lows.
Rotterdam Gasoil Stocks (KT)
Rotterdam Fuel Oil Stocks (KT)
Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks
Singapore Residual Fuel Stocks
Fujairah Medium Distillate Stocks
Fujairah Heavy Distillate Stocks
Gasoil flows
Approximately 50 kt of gasoil was imported into ARA in week 38, around 20 kt lower than the previous week. The latest inflows are below the 5-year low. In Singapore, imports were 220 kt, up 170 kt from the previous period. The current level is above the highs. Fujairah reported 40 kt of imports. Imports are lower than last week. Gibraltar recorded 70 kt of imports during the week, compared to 40 kt the previous week.
ARA: Gasoil
Singapore: Gasoil
The net balance was an inflow of 220 kt into the area in Singapore, with 0 kt of exports recorded. ARA recorded a net outflow of 60 kt from the area, with a gross outflow of approximately 110 kt. Fujairah recorded 180 kt of gross exports and a 140 kt outflow from the port. Gibraltar saw no gross exports, resulting in a 70 kt inflow into the area.
Net balance Gasoil
Fuel oil flows
Approximately 130 kt of fuel oil was imported into ARA in week 38, around 60 kt lower than the previous week. The latest inflows are below the 5-year average. In Singapore, imports were 480 kt, down 100 kt from the previous period. The current level is below the average. Fujairah reported 100 kt of imports. Imports are 90 kt lower than last week. Gibraltar recorded 120 kt of imports during the week, compared to 40 kt the previous week.
ARA: Fuel oil imports
Gibraltar area: Fuel oil imports
Fujairah: Fuel oil imports
Singapore area: Fuel oil imports
The net balance was a 350 kt inflow into the Singapore area, with 130 kt in exports. ARA recorded a net outflow of 60 kt from the area, with a gross outflow of approximately 190 kt. Fujairah recorded 510 kt of gross exports and a net outflow of 410 kt from the port. Gibraltar saw 50 kt of gross exports, resulting in a net inflow of 70 kt into the area.
Net balance, Fuel Oil
Observations
Geopolitics, falling inventories and diesel shortages strengthen the call on OPEC+ as oil markets remain tight and supply disruptions delay rebalancing until 2027.
Escalating geopolitical tensions remain the dominant force shaping the oil market, with disruptions to Middle East oil flows, shipping routes and refining operations continuing to tighten global balances. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC maintained a relatively constructive view of the global economy. It highlighted the growing importance of OPEC+ supply management as inventories continue to erode and supply risks persist.
The report portrays a market increasingly influenced by geopolitical risk premiums. Crude prices strengthened sharply in August, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging USD 86.44/bbl, while Brent rose to USD 88.08/bbl. OPEC noted that stronger demand for prompt cargoes, particularly from Asian refiners, combined with persistent concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, pushed futures markets into deeper backwardation and encouraged a more bullish stance among financial investors.
Despite elevated energy prices, OPEC still expects the global economy to remain resilient. Growth forecasts were left unchanged at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, supported by robust expansion in India and steady growth in China, along with continued investment in artificial intelligence and technology sectors. However, the organisation also acknowledged that geopolitical tensions and higher commodity prices remain key risks to the outlook.
On oil demand, OPEC remains considerably more optimistic than the International Energy Agency (IEA). The producer group expects global oil demand to grow by 0.4 mb/d in 2026 and then accelerate by 2.4 mb/d in 2027, with almost all growth coming from non-OECD economies. Transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks are expected to remain the main drivers of consumption growth.
By contrast, the IEA continues to focus on demand destruction associated with current geopolitical disruptions. The agency expects global oil demand to contract by 2.5 mb/d in 2026 before recovering by 2.6 mb/d in 2027. The sharp difference highlights the unusually high uncertainty surrounding the duration of supply disruptions and their impact on economic activity.
On the supply side, OPEC expects non-DoC production growth to remain modest at 0.6 mb/d both this year and next, led primarily by Brazil, the United States, Canada, Argentina and, later, Qatar. Meanwhile, crude production from participating DoC countries increased by 0.3 mb/d in August to 38.05 mb/d.
Inventories remain at the centre of the debate. OPEC reported OECD commercial stocks in July remained well below historical averages, despite a modest monthly increase. The IEA and Energy Information Administration (EIA) describe a far more dramatic situation, estimating substantial ongoing global stock draws. The IEA reported another 95 mb decline in August inventories, bringing cumulative draws since February to more than 500 mb. The EIA similarly expects inventory declines to continue through the second half of 2026.
More importantly, OPEC revised higher its estimate for the call on DoC crude to 42.2 mb/d in 2026 and 43.9 mb/d in 2027, underlining its view that OPEC+ barrels will remain essential to balancing the market.